Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.034598 0.039473 0.044825 0.051143 0.058404 0.066498 0.076217
2024-12-29 0.027622 0.034354 0.042438 0.052887 0.066078 0.082230 0.103594
2025-01-05 0.022476 0.029599 0.038676 0.051146 0.067918 0.089812 0.120756
2025-01-12 0.019204 0.026488 0.036231 0.050299 0.070230 0.097660 0.138629
2025-01-19 0.016371 0.023485 0.033399 0.048335 0.070459 0.102327 0.152254
2025-01-26 0.015218 0.022632 0.033366 0.050185 0.076154 0.115185 0.179139
2025-02-02 0.014244 0.021892 0.033351 0.051966 0.081824 0.128492 0.208207
2025-02-09 0.013401 0.021230 0.033341 0.053681 0.087486 0.142290 0.239623
2025-02-16 0.012236 0.019921 0.032158 0.053343 0.089704 0.150658 0.262850
2025-02-23 0.011355 0.018971 0.031434 0.053642 0.092951 0.160986 0.290585
2025-03-02 0.010398 0.017794 0.030207 0.052923 0.094301 0.168088 0.313239
2025-03-09 0.009867 0.017288 0.030058 0.054054 0.099025 0.181635 0.349443
2025-03-16 0.009093 0.016300 0.029003 0.053498 0.100691 0.189935 0.377014
2025-03-23 0.008736 0.016029 0.029209 0.055303 0.107034 0.207839 0.426165
2025-03-30 0.007923 0.014837 0.027607 0.053480 0.106077 0.211313 0.445910
2025-04-06 0.007318 0.013979 0.026545 0.052592 0.106864 0.218312 0.473943
2025-04-13 0.006635 0.012910 0.024981 0.050533 0.105005 0.219603 0.489539
2025-04-20 0.006465 0.012834 0.025352 0.052472 0.111760 0.239867 0.550639
2025-04-27 0.006295 0.012741 0.025678 0.054338 0.118549 0.260953 0.616497
2025-05-04 0.006125 0.012634 0.025961 0.056137 0.125374 0.282877 0.687357
2025-05-11 0.005767 0.012097 0.025298 0.055782 0.127253 0.293635 0.732024
2025-05-18 0.005495 0.011724 0.024949 0.056095 0.130715 0.308488 0.789130
2025-05-25 0.005156 0.011174 0.024169 0.055341 0.131549 0.317086 0.831033